Distribution of audience by type of reception
How will the audience of 4.5 “satellite” households be distributed by reception type from January next year? According to forecasts based on a March study, the distribution will be as follows.
620 thousand (14%) will remain subscribers of satellite “free” television and believe that those TV channels that can be further watched in FTA mode will be enough for them. However, it cannot be ruled out that at least some of these people will change their minds over the course of 2020.
The largest beneficiary of satellite TV channel coding will be DTT – terrestrial digital terrestrial television (often referred to as the standard – DVB-T2) – 1.1 million households (27%) will go there. Which, in general, is not surprising – as we wrote above, most of the “top” television channels that are planned to be encoded on the satellite are present in digital terrestrial broadcasting in most regions of the country.
Another 620 thousand have hopes for the pirates and plans to continue watching the now-coded TV channels through card sharing. However, these people are still not aware that the possibility of gaining access to encoded content in this way tends to zero – media groups are doing everything possible to stop this type of reception of their programs.
Unfortunately, according to current forecasts, satellite paid platforms (DTH) will be at the least benefit from these changes – 570 thousand households (13%) plan to become their subscribers. Therefore, it is a mistake to assume that all this venture was launched exclusively for the two existing satellite platforms – Viasat and Xtra. However, it should be seen as the first step towards reforming the industry itself.
According to the research, the highest growth dynamics are shown by Internet platforms – IPTV and OTT. If in 2017 9% of households declared the possibility of switching to them, now their share has grown to 14%. And, in the personal opinion of Yaroslav Pakholchuk, closer to the end of the year this figure can grow to 16-17%.
And finally, cable television adds 17% or 790 thousand households.
2021. 2020 is considered the year in the industry as a year of transformations and changes. Subscribers will switch to new platforms and conclude contracts. However, the copyright holder will learn about everything with a big delay.
Advantages of Encoding
So what is the benefit of encoding a signal on a satellite if the “growth” of paid satellite platforms is expected to be so insignificant? And the benefit, according to Yaroslav Pakholchuk, is that in general, more than three million households will move from the category of “globular” to the number of paid subscribers — that is, they will start paying for viewing television programs to certain service providers. And then everything will depend on market conditions, the profitability of various offers and the macroeconomic situation in the country as a whole.
Yaroslav Pakholchuk hopes that the income level of Ukrainian operators will be 10 billion – this is a round figure, and it is easy to remember. And the level of deductions for content is 22%. Is it a lot or a little? According to Yaroslav Pakholchuk, in developed countries the amount of deductions is from 25 to 35% – depending on the technology. As for the ARPU, Yaroslav Pakholchuk would like to see him at the level of the amount equivalent to 5 dollars. According to the speaker, today ARPU indicators of Ukrainian players in the telecommunications market – mobile operators, Internet providers, pay-TV platforms – are among the lowest in the world, and this is not normal. He believes that for pay-TV operators, ARPU should be at least 80 hryvnias (the equivalent of $ 3), and all that is lower should raise thoughts about hiding the number of real subscribers and other signs of unfair competition.
Thus, we can summarize. Media groups are generally ready to start coding, both technically and morally. And they are doing everything possible to make the transition as comfortable as possible for the viewer. Coding will affect – at least at this stage – only the top television channels and until it affects the niche channels that are not related to groups. However, this will already be enough to fundamentally change the television industry and the media landscape of Ukraine. The projected increase in the audience of paid DTH platforms will be insignificant, however, in general, the audience of various paid platforms will increase by more than three million households. And this means that the industry’s revenues will grow and additional opportunities will appear for its further growth and development.